Forecasting USD to CNY Exchange Rate Dynamics: Analyzing Influencing Factors

Prediction of Changes in the Exchange Rate between USD and CNY and Analysis of Influencing Factors

As one of the most significant indicators of global financial markets, the fluctuation of US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rates not only impacts economic development in the United States and China but also holds great importance for gauging global economic conditions. Analyzing factors affecting the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar USD and Chinese yuan CNY, including national policies and global political dynamics, has become a focal point of contemporary research. However, current studies often fall short in comprehensively examining these influencing variables.

The primary objective of is to forecast trs in the USD-CNY exchange rate and scrutinize the driving forces behind them. Data on exchange rates spanning from January 2000 through November 2023 were collected for analysis using an ARIMA model. This approach enables visualization of past exchange rate dynamics, providing insights into historical patterns.

Our findings reveal that significant shifts in the USD-CNY exchange rate over the last two decades have occurred during periods marked by global instability and policy adjustments. Moreover, China's and the U.S.'s economic development levels directly influence exchange rate fluctuations. The predictive model also forecasted the USD-CNY exchange rates for 2024, thereby offering a scientific framework to predict future economic trs.

We believe this research is crucial for policymakers and investors looking to navigate uncertnties in international finance and trade dynamics. Through an in-depth analysis of historical data and current influences on exchange rate movements, we m to provide valuable guidance on potential future trs within the USD-CNY market.

In summary, this study underscores the complex interplay between various factors affecting USD-CNY exchange rates and provides a scientific basis for predicting economic developments into 2024.

Citation:

Xiao, H. 2024. Prediction of Changes in the Exchange Rate between USD and CNY and Analysis of Influencing Factors. Highlights in Science, Engineering Technology, Volume 94, Issue 1, Pages 471-475.

Keywords: USD to CNY exchange rates; Exchange rate prediction; Monetary policy; Global political situation; Trade relations.

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