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As one of the crucial indicators of global financial markets, changes in the exchange rate between the US dollar USD and the Chinese yuan CNY not only have significant impacts on the economies of both countries but also provide deep insights into the dynamics of global economic conditions. Understanding the factors that influence this exchange rate has become a central focus for numerous researchers worldwide. Existing literature acknowledges that these factors include national policies, fluctuations in the global political landscape, and trade relations among others; however, there's an evident gap in comprehensively analyzing these elements to ensure objectivity.
delves into predicting the upcoming trs of USDCNY exchange rates while also examining the contributing factors. To achieve this m, monthly exchange rate data from January 2000 to November 2023 was collected and utilized for analysis. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ARIMA model was employed to forecast changes in the exchange rate over time. These predictive measures have been visualized to offer a clear view of their trs.
The study reveals that there were notable fluctuations in USDCNY exchange rates during periods characterized by global instability and policy adjustments. The economic development levels of China and the US are also found to be directly associated with these changes. Furthermore, this paper predicts future USDCNY exchange rate movements for 2024 based on an ARIMA model application.
In-depth analysis further substantiated that significant alterations in exchange rates were often correlated with global instability and policy shifts. The economic conditions of China and the US are pivotal factors affecting their currency values relative to each other, impacting trade dynamics between nations. By leveraging historical data patterns through the ARIMA model, this study provides a scientific basis for predicting future market trs.
This research is particularly significant as it not only predicts potential fluctuations in USDCNY exchange rates but also offers insights into how global economic factors and policy changes influence these financial indicators. These findings are essential for policymakers, economists, and businesses seeking to anticipate the economic landscape of 2024 based on current data-driven trs.
References:
Baku E., Exchange rate predictability in emerging markets, International Economics 2019: 157-178.
Hua Z. Shilin L., Recent Review and Future Trs of the CNY Exchange Rate Trs, China Rural Finance 2022: no. 13, pp. 3.
Rensong W., Discussion on the Factors of CNY Exchange Rate Fluctuation, China Industry and Economics 2023: vol. 10, pp. 38-40.
SaangJoon B., The bilateral real exchange rates and trade between China and the US, China Economic Review 2008: no. 19, pp. 117-127.
Qi J. Yongwen L., Prediction of US dollar exchange rate based on ARIMA model, Economic Research Guide 2022: vol. 20, pp. 69-71.
Yanyan C., The Impact of Fed Rate hikes on the CNY Interest Rates and Exchange Rates, Modern Business 2022: no. 29, pp. 31-35.
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Published: April 26th, 2024
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US Dollar Chinese Yuan Exchange Rate Prediction Factors Influencing Currency Fluctuations ARIMA Model for Financial Forecasting Global Economic Conditions Analysis Policy Changes Impact on Exchange Rates Trade Dynamics and Cross Border Finance Insights