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Global Trade Resumes Growth in the First Quarter of 2024
With the global economy beginning to show signs of recovery, trade dynamics have shifted positively during the first three months of this year. UNCTAD's latest Global Trade Update reveals that the value of goods trade increased by approximately 1 quarter-over-quarter and services trade surged by about 1.5.
The growth was driven primarily by China's exports which rose by around 9, India's exports by 7, and a modest increase in US exports at about 3. Contrarily, Europe witnessed flat export figures while Africa experienced a decrease of roughly -5 in their exports.
If this tr continues, the global trade is expected to add approximately $250 billion to its value in goods and $100 billion in services trade for the first half of 2024 compared to the latter half of 2023. The short-term forecast predicts a cautious optimism with global GDP growth estimates remning around 3 for this year.
The report forecasts that if positive trs persist, global trade might reach close to $32 trillion by 2024 but likely won't surpass the record high set in 2022.
South-South Trade Leads the Charge
Trade volumes between developing countries showed a notable increase of around 2 for both imports and exports during the first quarter of this year. In comparison, developed nations experienced stable import figures with an increment of approximately 1 in their exports.
However, South-South trade witnessed a slight upturn of about 2. Nevertheless, its volume remns significantly below pre-pandemic levels as its four-quarter moving average is still negative at -5.
Green Energy andDrive the Trade Surge
The report highlights that sectors experiencing robust growth include green energy and products. The value of high-performance servers traded surged by a quarter compared to Q1 2023, while other computers and storage units saw an increment of around 8.
Moreover, electric vehicles also registered a remarkable increase in trade values from approximately 25 between 2022 and 2023.
Positive Outlook with Geopolitical Risks
Despite these positive indicators, the global trade outlook for 2024 is marked by geopolitical uncertnties and potential policy challenges that could reshape trade patterns.
The report notes an uptick in political proximity trs seen in fri-shoring, favoring trade relationships between countries sharing similar geopolitical stances. However, this tr appears to be moderating somewhat as governments increasingly prioritize domestic industries and trade restrictions, which may hinder international growth opportunities.
Please stay tuned for updates on the evolving trade landscape and related discussions at upcoming global forums and events.
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Key Topics
Statistics and Data Analysis
International Trade Trs
Trade Policy and Environment
Core Keywords:
Developing Countries
Affordable and Clean Energy Goal UN SDG 7
Global Trade Statistics
Renewable Energy Industries
South-South Trade Growth
Inclusive Trade Practices
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Global Trade Resurgence in Q1 2024 South South Trade Growth Trend Green Energy and AI Impact Positive Outlook for 2024 Trade Geopolitical Risks and Trade Policies Inclusive Trade Practices Emphasis