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Analyzing the Long Term Equilibrium of Asian Currencies and International Financial Markets

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Comparative Analysis of Long-Term Equilibrium Relationships between the Exchange Rates of KRW, RMB, JPY and International Financial Market Variables

Volume 5, Issue 6, Pages 744-761 2020

Authors: Moon-Kyum Kima, Woong Ryeol Kima

Correspondence: Moon-Kyum Kim

Eml: [email protected]

DOI: http:dx.doi.org10.25046aj050690

Keywords: Currency, RMB Yuan, CNY CNH, KRW Yen, NDF VECM

Abstract

This paper employs vector error correctionVECM to investigate the long-term equilibrium relationship between South Korea's Won, China's Yuan CNY, and Japan's Yen exchange rates with international financial market variables. The analysis focuses on the spot exchange rates of these currencies in conjunction with three key markets: foreign exchange market Won-Dollar, Yuan-Dollar, and Yen-Dollar, stock market indices KOSPI, Shangh Stock Index, Nikkei 225, interest rate spreads, and commodity prices.

The findings can be summarized as follows:

  1. The analysis reveals that there exists a long-term cointegration relationship among the exchange rates of South Korea, China, Japan, and international financial market variables.

  2. The Vector Error Correction Model VECM outcomes show that South Korea's offshore Won-Dollar has a significant explanatory power of approximately 50 when compared to onshore counterparts.

  3. The VECM analysis for Yuan indicates that both onshore Yuan CNY and offshore Yuan CNH exchange rates exhibit influence, but each exhibits distinct characteristics in relation to the market variables.

  4. Considering the overall integration with the international financial markets, the Won is found to be more closely tied compared to the Yuan.

  5. The Yen demonstrates a stronger relationship with international financial markets than both the Won and Yuan.

Implications of this study:

  1. A comprehensive perspective on exchange rates should include an analysis from the viewpoint of global financial markets.

  2. Risk management strategies for Yuan investments are crucial due to its unique dynamics between onshore and offshore markets.

  3. Effective management of exchange rate positions is necessary when considering the long-term equilibrium relationship among these Asian currencies Won, Yuan, Yen.

  4. Korean companies should capitalize on opportunities offered by the Won's partial internationalization.

Date: November 24, 2020

Received: October 6, 2020

Accepted: October 31, 2020

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Comparative Analysis of Long Term Exchange Rates Relationships KRW RMB JPY International Financial Markets Vector Error Correction Model VECM Study South Korea China Japan Currency Dynamics Risk Management Strategies for Yuan Investments Won Yen Currency Integration with Global Markets